complexity
view markdownComplexity can be a useful notion for many things in statistical models. It can help answer the following questions:
 can I interpret this model?
 how many samples should I collect?
 is my model a good fit for this problem?
 model class selectiondirectionsmore stable (e.g. LOOCV, deletion, weights)interpolating estimator w/ lowest var?
 set an err threshold and then look at stability
philosophy
 the architecture of complexity (herbert simon, 1962)
 complexity takes the form of hierarchy
 simon, 1981: complex systems are “made up of a large number of parts that have many interactions.”
 What is complexity? (edmonds 95)
 complexity is only really useful for comparisons
 properties
 size  makes things potentially complex
 ignorance  complex things represent things we don’t understand (e.g. the brain)
 minimum description size  more about information than complexity
 potential problem  expressions are not much more complex than the original axioms in the system, even though they can get quite complex
 potential problem  things with lots of useless info would seem more complex
 some variety is necessary but not sufficient
 order  we sometimes find order comes and goes (like double descent)  has a lot to do with language (audience)
 defn: “that property of a language expression which makes it difficult to formulate its overall behaviour even when given almost complete information about its atomic components and their interrelations”
 language matters  what about the system are we describing?
 goal matters  what outcome are interested in?
 On Complexity and Emergence (standish 01)
 definition close to Kolmogorov / shannon entropy
 adds context dependence
 kolmogorov complexity = algorithmic information complexity
 problem 1: must assume a particular Universal Turing machine (which might give differing results)
 problem 2: random sequences have max complexity, even though they contain no information
 soln
 incorporate context  what descriptions are the same?
 $C(x) = \lim _{\ell \to \infty} \log_2 N  \log_2 \omega (\ell, x)$
 where C(x) is the complexity (measured in bits), $\ell(x)$ the length of the description, N the size of the alphabet used to encode the description and ω(ℓ,x) the size of the class of all descriptions of length less than ℓ equivalent to x.
 emergence  ex. game of life
 What is complexity 2 (GellMann 02)
 AIC  algorithmic information content  contains 2 terms
 effective complexity (EC) = the length of a very concise description of an entity’s regularities
 regularities are judged subjectively (e.g. birds would judge a bird song’s regularity)
 2nd term relating to random features
 effective complexity (EC) = the length of a very concise description of an entity’s regularities
 AIC  algorithmic information content  contains 2 terms
 complexity (Sporns 07)
 complexity = degree to which components engage in organized structured interactions
 High complexity > mixture of order and disorder (randomness and regularity) + have a high capacity to generate emergent phenomena.
 2 categories
 algorithmic / mdl
 natural complexity (e.g. physical complexity)
 quanta article
 “the probability of producing some types of outputs is far greater when randomness operates at the level of the program describing it rather than at the level of the output itself”
 “they recently reported in Royal Society Open Science that, compared to statistically random mutations, this mutational bias caused the networks to evolve toward solutions significantly faster.”
computational complexity
 amount of computational resource that it takes to solve a class of problem
 Computational complexity (Papadimitriou)
 like run times of algorithms etc. $O(n)$
 Parameterized complexity (Downey and Fellows)
 want to solve problems that are NPhard or worse, so we isolate input into a parameter
bayesian model complexity
 Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit (spiegelhalter et al.)
 AIC
 BIC
 TIC
statistical learning theory
 VCdimension  measure of capacity of a function class that can be learned
 cardinality of largest number of points which can be shattered
misc
 rashomon curves (semenova & rudin, 2019)
 rashomon effect  many different explanations exist for same phenomenon
 rashomon set  set of almostequally accurate models for a given problem
 rashomon ratio  ratio of volume of set of accurate models to the volume of the hypothesis space
 rashomon curve  empirical risk vs rashomon ratio
 rashomon elbow  maximize rashomon ratio while minimizing risk
 good for model selection
 rashomon elbow  maximize rashomon ratio while minimizing risk
 bennet’s logical depth (1988)  computational resources taken to calculate the results of a minimal length problem (combines computational complexity w/ kolmogorov complexity)
 Effective measure complexity (Grassberger, 1986) quantifies the complexity of a sequence by the amount of information contained in a given part of the sequence that is needed to predict the next symbol
 Thermodynamic depth (Lloyd and Pagels, 1988) relates the entropy of a system to the number of possible historical paths that led to its observed state
 lofgren’s interpretation and descriptive complexity
 convert between system and description
 kaffman’s number of conflicting constraints
 Effective complexity (GellMann, 1995) measures the minimal description length of a system’s regularities
 Physical complexity (Adami and Cerf, 2000) is related to effective complexity and is designed to estimate the complexity of any sequence of symbols that is about a physical world or environment
 Statistical complexity (Crutchfield and Young, 1989) is a component of a broader theoretic framework known as computational mechanics, and can be calculated directly from empirical data
 Neural complexity (Tononi et al., 1994)  multivariate extension of mutual information that estimates the total amount of statistical structure within an arbitrarily large system.= the difference between the sum of the component’s individual entropies and the joint entropy of the system as a whole
 complexity = variance of the model predictions (given that there is zero bias)
estimated
 optimal m estimation in high dimensions optimal loss function (optimize over different loss functions, but evaluate with L2)assumes unbiased (so variance is the mse)
entropy characterizations
 try to characterize functions in the prediction space
 metric entropy  want functions to be close (within epsilon)
 bracket entropy  function is both upper and lower bounded by bounding functions, which are within epsilon
 can do this on an entire function class (e.g. all neural networks) or on a restricted subset (e.g. path during training)
 optimal learning via local entropies and sample compression
 risk bounds for statistical learning
 Chaining Mutual Information and Tightening Generalization Bounds (asadi et al. 2018)
 describing DNN paths
deep learning complexity
 a hessianbased complexity measure for dnnswith generalization and computation to a different form of stability
 thm 3  want function to be smooth wrt to augmented loss
 complexity measure (liang et al. 2019)
double descent
 Reconciling modern machine learning and the biasvariance tradeoff (belkin et al. 2018)
 Surprises in HighDimensional Ridgeless Least Squares Interpolation
 main result of limiting risk, where $\gamma \in (0, \infty)$:

$R(\gamma) = \begin{cases} \sigma^2 \frac{\gamma}{1\gamma} & \gamma < 1 \beta _2^2(1  \frac 1 \gamma) + \sigma^2 \frac{1} {\gamma  1} & \gamma > 1\end{cases}$

 main result of limiting risk, where $\gamma \in (0, \infty)$:
 linear regression depends on data distr.
 two models of double descent for weak features
 double descent curve
 boosting w/ l2 loss
 effective degrees of freedom
 highdimensional ridge
 Harmless interpolation of noisy data in regression  bound on how well interpolative solns can generalize to fresh data (goes to zero with extra features)
 Deep Double Descent: Where Bigger Models and More Data Hurt (nakkiran et al. 2019)
linear models
 Degrees of Freedom and Model Search (tibshirani 2014)
 degrees of freedom = quantitative description of the amount of fitting performed by a given procedure
 linear smoothers and additive models (buja et al. 1989) see page 469 for degrees of freedom in ridge
minimum description length

mdl in linear regression: want to send y over, X is known to both sides, theta is also sent (used to pick a decoder for y)
 normalized maximum likelihood (nml): use theta to make codebook, then send code
 The Minimum Description Length Principle in Coding and Modeling (barron, rissanen, & yu, 98)
 mdl: represent an entire class of prob. distrs. as models by a single “universal” representative model such that it would be able to imitate the behavior of any model in the class. The best model class for a set of observed data, then, is the one whose representative premits the shortest coding of the data
 tradeoff: “good” prob. models for the data permit shorter code lengths
 generally agrees w/ low mse
 ex. encode data w/ model defined by mle estimates, quantized optimally to finite precision, then encode estimate w/ prefix code
 mdl

likelihood = summarize data in accodance / model (e.g. $P(y x, \theta)$)  parametric complexity = summarize model params

 Model Selection and the Principle of Minimum Description Length (hansen & yu 2001)
 mdl: choose the model that gives the shortest description of data
 description length = length of binary string used to code the data
 using a prob distr. for coding/description purposes doesn’t require that it actually generate our data
 basic coding
 set A, code C (mapping from A to a set of codewords)
 Q is a distr. on A
 $\log_2Q$ is the code length for symbols in A
 can construct such a code w/ Huffman coding
 expected code length is minimized when Q = P, the true distr of our data
 different forms
 2stage
 mixture
 predictive
 normalized maximum likelihood (NML)
 mdl: choose the model that gives the shortest description of data
 mdl intro (Rissanen, 2008)  scholarpedia
 coding just the data would be like maximum likelihood

minimize $\underset{\text{loglikelihood}}{\log P(y^n x^n;\theta)} + \underset{\text{description length}}{L(\theta)}$  ex. OLS
 if we want to send all the coefficients, assume an order and $L(\theta) = L(p) + L(\theta_1, … \theta_p)$
 $L(\theta) \approx \frac p 2 \log p$
 quantization for each parameter (must quantize otherwise need to specify infinite bits of precision)
 $L(\theta) \approx \frac p 2 \log p$
 if we want only a subset of the coefficients, also need to send $L(i_1, …, i_k)$ for the indexes of the nonzero coefficients

minimization becomes $\underset p \min \quad [\underset{\text{noise}}{ \log P(y^n x^n; \hat{\theta}_{OLS})} + \underset{\text{learnable info}}{(p/2) \log n}]$  noise  no more info can be extracted with this class of models
 learnable info in the data = precisely the best model
 stochastic complexity = noise + learnable info
 in this case, is same as BIC but often different
 modern mdl  don’t assume a model form, try to code the data as short as possible with a universal model class
 often can actually construct these codes
 Kolmogorov complexity $K(x)$ = the shortest computer program (in binary) that generates x (a binary string) = the “amount of info” in x
 complexity of a string x is at most its length

algorithmically random  any string whose length is close to $ x $  more random = higher complexity
 Minimum description length original reference \cite{rissanen1978modeling}. What is the minimum length description of the original?
 MDL reviews \cite{barron1998minimum, hansen2001model}.
 Book on stochastic complexity \cite{rissanen1989stochastic}
 Minimum Description Length, MDL, principle for model selection, of which the original form states that the best model is the one which permits the shortest encoding of the data and the model itself
 note: this type of complexity applies to the description, not the system
 Look into the neurips paper on using mutual information and entropy and this paper by barron that related covering balls etc to minimax bounds
 Information Theory in Probability Statistics Learning and Neural Nets (barron 97)
 InformationTheoretic Asymptotics of Bayes Methods (Clarke & Barron 90)
mdl in nonlinear models
 MDLbased Decision Tree Pruning (mehta et al. 95)
 deep learning
 highlevel
 most unsupervised learning can be thought of as mdl
 to compress the data we must take advantage of mutual info between x and y
 Learning Population Codes by Minimizing Description Length (zemel & hinton 1995)
 Keeping Neural Networks Simple by Minimizing the Description Length of the Weights (hinton & van camp 1993)
 The Description Length of Deep Learning Models (blier & ollivier 2018)
 compress using prequential mdl
 mdl for attention (lin 2019)
 highlevel
 Lightlike Neuromanifolds, Occam’s Razor and Deep Learning (sun & nielsen 2019)
 “A new MDL formulation which can explain the double descent risk curve of deep learning”
 Towards Learning Convolutions from Scratch (neyshabur 2020)
 uses some mdl as guiding principles
 training with $\beta$lasso, fc weights become very local